Research Project D01

Compilation of long-term national and regional population scenarios for the 12 EU Candidate Countries

Project Manager for the CEFMR part: Marek Kupiszewski

Project funded through the Eurostat call for tenders (2002/S 67-052015/EN) - Lot 2, and executed by the Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI), the Hague, of which the CEFMR is a subcontractor.

Since 1985, the European Commission is involved in producing internationally comparable and consistent population projections for the EU member states, both on national and regional (NUTS-2) levels, which are used for policymaking in various areas. For this purpose a comprehensive demographic database has been created, with time series of data depicting population changes. As the recent round of projections was scheduled for 2004, this project was aimed at providing long-term population development scenarios for the 12 EU candidate countries, 10 of which were about to join the EU in May 2004.

The project covered five areas: completion of national and regional data series of Eurostat, compilation of long-term national and regional population projections for the 12 candidate countries and three studies to prepare the next round of projections. The main objectives of this project were: (1) to perform an explanatory analysis of changes in fertility, mortality, international migration and interregional migration, and patterns during the 1980s and 1990s at both national and regional (NUTS-2) levels, and (2) to compile a set of internationally consistent population scenarios by sex and single years of age, at both national and regional (NUTS-2) levels for the period 2000-2050.

The major activities in this project included:

1. Assessment of the quality and utility of regional demographic time series from existing databases of Eurostat; and, if necessary/feasible, collection and processing of more detailed statistics from national statistical institutes and other, international organisations;
2. Analysis of principal national and regional demographic trends during the 1980s and 1990s, with special attention to the impact of cultural, economic and political changes;
3. Collection and quality assessment of the latest national and regional population forecasts produced by national statistical institutes in the countries concerned;
4. Evaluation of the use of the 2000-based national population projections compiled by the United Nations Population Division (New York);
5. Preparation of draft assumptions of future national and regional fertility, mortality, international migration and interregional migration trends for the 12 EU candidate countries, consistent with the 1995-based set of long-term national and regional population scenarios for the EEA countries, by using results of the explanatory analysis;
6. Production, documentation and publication of long-term national and regional scenarios;

CEFMR was involved in these parts of the above-mentioned activities that concerned scenarios of development of international migration in the the 12 EU candidate countries.

The results of the project constitute a part of the 2004-based European Population Projections (EUROPOP 2004) of the Eurostat.