Research Project D02

Impact of international migration on population dynamics and labour force resources in Central Eastern Europe

Project Manager: Marek Kupiszewski

The project has been financed by the Foundation for Population, Migration and Environment (BMU/PME).

Many studies show that ageing and, in some countries, declining populations of Europe may make it difficult to support in future those who retire. Demographic old age dependency ratio will increase in Europe, which was confirmed both for the EU and the Central Europe by various research studies. A far going and sharp decline in labour force after 2015 is foreseen, coupled with the changes in the rising proportion of the older to younger labour force. In most countries pension payments in the pay-as-you-go system can exceed the contributions. At the same time, despite high unemployment or underemployment some European countries increasingly relay on foreign labour.

The consequences of forecasted demographic changes force both researchers and governments to rethink migration policies. One option is to depart from the "fortress Europe" approach and to see, to what extent natural decrease could be offset with international migration. A number of studies published recently, in particular the UN's Replacement migration (2000) report, contributed to the discussion of this option from demographic point of view, however they concentrate on Western Europe.

The aim of this project was to contribute to the debate and look at the problem from the point of view of Central and Eastern Europe, showing how different migration policies and in consequence different streams of migrants will impact population dynamics in CEE and in the most important receiving countries of Western Europe. This was done by assuming various scenarios of international migration and running population dynamics model for these scenarios. As a result, various population dynamics trajectories have been obtained, allowing for analysing the impact of different migration scenarios on the size and age structure of population and labour force resources. The results allow researchers, governments and policy makers to evaluate to what extend various migration policies may be instrumental in meeting desired population size and structures.

Calculations have been made to show the size of migration needed to maintain selected demographic parameters in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, such as the size of population or the proportion of labour age population to elderly population, in line with the UN (2000) study. We are perfectly aware of the criticism the Replacement migration (UN, 2000) was subject to, and mostly share views presented there. To address some of them, such demoeconomic variables as labour force participation rates and retirement age have been included in the model.

The project, in terms of geography, covered all EU member states, Switzerland, Norway and 10 candidate countries, on which the project focused.

The project consisted of the following research tasks:

1. Analysis of policies and trends of international migration in Europe and setting up scenarios of changes of migration streams;
2. Preparing projections of population and labour force supply;
3. Analysis of the results of projections from the point of view of possible migration policies.

Deliverables of this project include so far six CEFMR Working Papers:

WP 4/2003 Development and Critique of the Concept of Replacement Migration;
WP 1/2004 Migration policy in the European perspective - development and future trends;
WP 3/2004 Fertility and mortality scenarios for 27 European countries 2002-2052;
WP 4/2004 International migration scenarios for 27 European countries 2002-2052;
WP 5/2004 Labour force participation scenarios for 27 European countries 2002-2052;
      Annex to WP 5/2004: Tables and Figures;
WP 1/2005 Impact of international migration on population dynamics and labour force resources in Europe;
      Annex to WP 1/2005: Tables and Figures.