Conference

Demographic Perspectives of Europe

Wednesday, 19 October 2005

9:30 am - 18:00 pm

Main Building of the Warsaw School of Economics
Warsaw, Al. Niepodległości 162, room 152

The aim of the conference was to disseminate the results of a research project on the impact of international migration on population dynamics and labor force resources in Europe in the coming half a century (2002-2052). In this way, we would like to contribute to the discussion on population ageing and possible remedies against its negative outcomes, considering demography, labor markets and social security systems alike. Although the conference had a scientific character, it was aimed not only at the academic community, but also on the policy-makers, civil servants, diplomats, journalists and students.

The conference was organized by the Central European Forum for Migration Research (CEFMR) in co-operation wih the Institute of Statistics and Demography of the Warsaw School of Economics (WSE), and the Warsaw Office of the International Organization for Migration (IOM), within the framework of the 100th Anniversary of the WSE. The conference was held in Polish.

The research project and the conference have been financed by the Foundation for Population, Migration and Environment (BMU-PME) from Zurich.

Presented papers:

Session I. Methodological Issues
Chair: Prof. Marek Okólski, Director of the Center of Migration Research, Warsaw University

• Prof. M. Kupiszewski: Introduction. Presentation of the project: «Impact of international migration on population dynamics and labor force resources in Central and Eastern Europe»

• K. Saczuk: A critical assessment of the concept of 'replacement migration'. Text in English: CEFMR Working Paper 4/2003 (pdf 321KB); overheads in Polish (pdf 174KB)

• Dr. D. Kupiszewska, Prof. M. Kupiszewski: The MULTIPOLES model - a tool for forecasting, projecting and simulating population size and structures. Overheads in Polish (pdf 252KB)

Session II. Forecasts and simulations - assumptions
Chair: Prof. Jan Paradysz, Director of the Chair of Statistics, Poznań University of Economics

• J. Bijak: Fertility and mortality scenarios for 27 European countries, 2002-2052. Text in English: CEFMR Working Paper 3/2004 (pdf 587KB); overheads in Polish (pdf 660KB)

• J. Bijak, Prof. M. Kupiszewski, A. Kicinger: International migration scenarios for 27 European countries, 2002-2052. Text in English: CEFMR Working Paper 4/2004 (pdf 643KB); overheads in Polish (pdf 482KB)

• K. Saczuk: Labour force participation scenarios for 27 European countries, 2002-2052. Text in English: CEFMR Working Paper 5/2004 (pdf 662KB), with an Annex (pdf 358KB); overheads in Polish (pdf 250KB)

Session III. Forecasts and simulations - results
Chair: Prof. Piotr Korcelli, Director of the Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization, Polish Academy of Sciences

• J. Bijak, Dr. D. Kupiszewska, Prof. M. Kupiszewski, K. Saczuk: Population and labour force perspectives in Europe, 2002-2052. Overheads in Polish (pdf 0.99MB)

• J. Bijak, Dr. D. Kupiszewska, Prof. M. Kupiszewski, K. Saczuk: Size and dynamics of population in Europe in 2002-2052 and the 'replacement migration'. Overheads in Polish (pdf 250KB)

  Common background to both presentations (in English): CEFMR Working Paper 1/2005 (pdf 1.49MB), with an Annex (pdf 1.32MB)

• Prof. M. Kupiszewski: Summary of the results of forecasts and simulations

Session IV. Conclusions and critical assessment of the results
Chair: Prof. Janina Jóźwiak, Director of the Institute of Statistics and Demography, WSE

• Prof. I. E. Kotowska (WSE): Critical assessment of the expected demographic developments in Europe. Full paper in English (pdf 384KB)

• Prof. E. Kryńska (University of Łódź): Critical assessment of the labour force evolution in Europe. Full paper in English (pdf 343KB)

• Prof. M. Góra (WSE): Demographic determinants of pension systems in Europe

See the conference programme (in Polish) and the press release (in English).

Photos from the conference: